This article is read by Eunice Wong. You can find her work at www.eunicewong.actor.
Text originally published May 14, 2026.
Full Text:
America’s newest quagmire in the Middle East is like its old quagmires in the Middle East. It is based, as were the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, on a gross misreading of our adversaries, a catastrophic failure to understand the limits of imperial power and no discernable strategy. It swells the profits of the war industry, wasting billions of public funds, alienates our allies and erodes the global power and prestige of the United States.
Dying empires, governed by the corrupt and the incompetent, are blinded by militarism and hubris. They are unable to read the world around them. They stumble into self-defeating cul-de-sacs — as we did in Iraq, Afghanistan and earlier in Vietnam — where military adventurism accelerates self-inflicted wounds.
The war on Iran is one more chapter in our precipitous and ultimately fatal decline.
Tehran’s 10-point temporary ceasefire proposal — brokered by Pakistani mediators and presented to the U.S. 40 days after war against Iran had begun — is tantamount to surrender terms. It demands the end of U.S. and Israeli attacks, including in Lebanon. It calls for the removal of U.S. military bases and installations from the region. It solidifies Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. It refuses to abandon uranium enrichment. It calls for the end to sanctions and termination of anti-Iranian resolutions by the United Nations Security Council and International Atomic Energy Agency. It also requires release of frozen assets — estimated at $100 billion — and reparations for the U.S. and Israeli attacks.
This is too bitter a humiliation for the U.S. and Israel to accept.
Within hours of the Iranian proposal, Israel — determined to sabotage any agreement — launched a devastating air attack against Lebanon. The attack, which was carried out over 10 minutes, included the bombing of central Beirut. It involved 50 fighter jets and 108 airstrikes that dropped around 160 bombs, killing 350 people and wounding 1,000 others. The lightning and unprovoked massacre, known as “Black Wednesday,” is a potent reminder that Israel has no intention of allowing this war to end. With the U.S. not ready to admit defeat, and Israel’s bloodlust, we are in for a very rough ride.
Iran submitted an updated proposal last week, which Trump said is “totally unacceptable.”
But Iran, with its stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz, can afford to wait. The longer it maintains its blockade over shipping — roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz — the more global economic pain it inflicts.
There is no good outcome for the U.S.
The Trump administration’s obstinacy and Israel’s determination to resume attacks on Iran ensures that the global economy will barrel towards a global depression.
The World Bank projects a 31 percent increase in the cost of nitrogen fertilizers which are produced in the Gulf and transit through the Strait of Hormuz this year if the war continues. This ensures a huge rise in food costs.
Shortages are already shutting down global manufacturing and production. The fragile, interdependent global supply chains are seizing up.
This economic ecosystem, as Iran has shown, is easy to destroy. It will be very hard to piece back together.
Iran suffered devastating blows to its civilian infrastructure and economy — including residential areas, schools, health centers, police stations, churches and synagogues and energy, desalinization plants, steel and pharmaceutical facilities — as well as its military assets, including parts of its navy, air force and missile launch capabilities. It endured “decapitation strikes” against its senior political and military leaders at the start of the war, which included the assassinations of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the secretary of Iran’s Defence Council, Ali Shamkhani, and the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, Abdolrahim Mousavi, among others.
None of the U.S. and Israeli objectives, however, have been met.
The new Iranian leadership — centered around the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — is more defiant and intransigent than the previous leadership.
Iran maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz. It charges as much as $2 million for every oil tanker passing through it. These tariffs — which Iran introduced as part of its demand for war reparations — must be paid in Chinese currency, part of an attempt by Iran, China and Russia to break the hegemony of the U.S. dollar. Iran also retains significant missile and drone stockpiles and enriched uranium, which it has warned it will increase to 90 percent purity if attacked again.
Iran is the clear winner of Operation Epic Fury. Trump is the clear loser. The dilemma is that Trump’s penchant for inventing his own reality means he is unlikely to acknowledge his blunder and negotiate a way out of the debacle he created.
Trump, without Congressional approval, has already squandered at least $29 billion on the war according to the Pentagon, although analysis by Stephen Semler of Popular Information places the figure closer to $72 billion.
The human cost is already high. U.S. and Israeli strikes have killed more than 3,300 Iranian civilians, including at least 221 children. Over three million Iranians have been displaced, along with over one million Lebanese from Israel’s ongoing bombardment and ethnic cleansing of southern Lebanon. There are, at the same time, over two million displaced Palestinians from the genocide in Gaza and another 1,100 killed and 40,000 displaced Palestinians in the occupied West Bank.
Fuel shortages and supply disruptions are crippling countries in Asia, with Thailand facing panic buying and rationing at some petrol stations. Vietnam and South Korea are scrambling to secure alternative crude and fuel supplies. Japan, which relies on the Persian Gulf for roughly 95 percent of its crude oil imports, has had to dip twice into its strategic reserves since the war started in February.
The rise in price of liquefied petroleum means cooking fuel prices have increased by about seven percent for domestic use in India, but have skyrocketed by around 76 percent in the commercial sector. This has resulted in production cuts and job losses in the garment and textile sector in India, as well as in Bangladesh and Cambodia.
There are shortages of helium, aluminum and naphtha, also transited through the Strait of Hormuz. These shortages have seen production declines, including among microchip manufacturers, construction firms and the plastic packaging sector. Steel mills in India and automakers in Japan have cut production. Tens of thousands of workers across the globe have already lost their jobs.
Asian airlines, along with many on the European continent — including those from Germany, Turkey and Greece — are loading extra fuel at their airports, cutting flights and raising surcharges with the doubling of the price of jet fuel. The United Arab Emirates — one of the world’s richest states with sovereign wealth funds that total more than $2 trillion — has asked the U.S. for a “Wartime Financial Lifeline” in the wake of missile-damaged gas fields and a halt to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Millions of people, especially in Asia and Africa, are at risk of falling into dire poverty because of the war, according to the United Nations Development Program.
The U.S., which is a net exporter of oil and natural gas, has been relatively insulated from the global shock, although gasoline prices have risen by around 40 percent to more than $4.50 a gallon. The average U.S. diesel price has increased by nearly 50 percent, surpassing $5.60 a gallon. But it is only a matter of time before the breakdown of the global economy ravages the U.S.
The Trump administration is pushing us towards a global depression with all of the social and political instability that comes with a catastrophic financial crisis.
Trump is desperate. He spews out expletive-laden threats to Iran on social media, writing “Open the Fuckin’ Strait [of Hormuz], you crazy bastards.” He also posts Artificial Intelligence generated images showing the U.S. military obliterating the Iranian military. He has threatened to bomb Iranians “back to the stone age where they belong,” and lambasts his critics as traitors:
“When the Fake News says that the Iranian enemy is doing well, Militarily, against us, it’s virtual TREASON in that it is such a false, and even preposterous, statement.” He declared on Truth Social, “They are aiding and abetting the enemy!”
This screed was followed by an image of a map with Venezuela overlaid with the U.S. flag. The caption read: “51st State.”
Before leaving for China, Trump claimed: “We have Iran very much under control… We’re either going to make a deal or they’re going to be decimated. One way or the other, we win.”
The rants are pathetic and unhinged. But they are also ominous.
The U.S. is building up troop levels in the region. It has deployed the Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit — composed of about 3,500 sailors and Marines — in addition to transport and strike fighter aircraft and assault and tactical assets. It has deployed the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group along with about 2,500 Marines from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit equipped with F-35B Lightning II Stealth Fighters, MV-22B Osprey, tilt rotors and attack helicopters. The U.S. has also sent around 2,000 paratroopers to the Persian Gulf and is reportedly considering augmenting these forces with an additional 10,000 troops.
A resumption of the bombing, coupled with even a limited ground assault, would ensure a long and costly war. It will fulfill Israel’s objective — which seeks to bomb Iran into a failed state — but will be another mortal blow to the U.S. empire.
A ground assault on Kharg Island — which lies 16 miles off Iran’s coast and serves as the country’s main oil storage and export terminal, processing around 90 percent of the country’s oil exports — would send seismic shock waves through the global economy. And if U.S. troops attempt to seize Iranian territory, Iran will deploy its arsenal of anti-ship cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, underwater drones and mines, making any occupation deadly.
We are in serious trouble.
The management of the conflict is far beyond the capabilities of the buffoons within the Trump administration. They prefer global misery and carnage to defeat. By the time they face the inevitable, they will have left mounds of corpses in their wake.
The tragedy is not that the empire is dying. The tragedy is that the empire is bringing so many innocents down with it.
Photos
Tank & Burning Oil Wells
During the Gulf War, a pair of American soldiers stand in the turret of an M1A1 Abrams tank as, near the border with Iraq, oil wells burn in the distance, Kuwait, March 20, 1991. (Photo by Allan Tannenbaum/Getty Images)
Weeping Man
(Original Caption) March 29, 1975 - Van Ninh, South Vietnam: Carrying only a few things on his back, a weeping head of a family leads the way while walking along Highway 1, twenty seven miles north of Nha Trang as they approach this town walking from Qui Nhon.
Iran-IRGC Marine Parade Commemorating Persian Gulf National Day
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy Martyr Tavassoli warship is sailing along the Persian Gulf, while a Basij paramilitary force speedboat is carrying Iranian flags and a Palestinian flag. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
The remains of buildings are seen in Ain al-Mraiseh in the
BEIRUT, LEBANON - 2026/04/09: The remains of buildings are seen in Ain al-Mraiseh in the Beirut neighborhood of Tallet al-Khayat a day after an Israeli airstrike struck without warning. (Photo by Sally Hayden/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
Rescue workers continued to search for missing people in the
BEIRUT, LEBANON - 2026/04/09: Rescue workers continued to search for missing people in the Beirut neighbourhood of Tallet al-Khayat, a day after an Israeli airstrike hit without warning. (Photo by Sally Hayden/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
President Trump Meets With Oil And Gas Executives At The White House
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 09: U.S. President Donald Trump takes questions from members of the media during a meeting with oil and gas executives in the East Room of the White House on January 9, 2026 in Washington, DC. Trump is holding the meeting to discuss plans for investment in Venezuela after ousting its leader Nicolás Maduro. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
U.S. And Israel Wage War Against Iran
TEHRAN, IRAN - MARCH 28: A large plume of smoke rises over Tehran after explosions were reported in the city during the night on March 28, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. The United States and Israel continued their joint attack on Iran that began on February 28. Iran retaliated by firing waves of missiles and drones at Israel, and targeting U.S. allies in the region. (Photo by Getty Images)
Defense Sec. Pete Hegseth Holds Pentagon Press Conference On Iran Strikes
ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA - JUNE 26: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force Gen. Dan Caine turns to watch a video of a bombing test of the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) used in the attack on the Iranian Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant during a news conference with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon on June 26, 2025 in Arlington, Virginia. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Iran Holds Presidential Runoff Election
TEHRAN, IRAN - JULY 5: Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks after casting his vote for the presidential runoff election on July 5, 2024 in Tehran, Iran. The second round of Iran’s presidential elections was held while no candidate won the majority of votes in the first round of elections last month. In the second round, Saeed Jalili, who is known as a radical candidate, faced Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist candidate. (Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)
General Ali Shamkhani Portrait Session
TEHRAN, IRAN - DECEMBER 17, 2014: General Ali Shamkhani the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran photographed in its headquarters on December 17, 2014 in Tehran, Iran. (Photo by Kaveh Kazemi/Getty Images)
IRAN-US-EMBASSY-DEMO
Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Army Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi speaks during a rally outside the former US embassy in the capital Tehran on November 4, 2019, to mark the 40th anniversary of the Iran hostage crisis. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP) (Photo by ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images)
TOPSHOT-IRAN-ISRAEL-US-WAR
TOPSHOT - Iranian mourners gather during the funeral of Iran’s security chief Ali Larijani and Gholamreza Soleimani, a senior officer in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who commands Basij forces, in Tehran on March 18, 2026. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images) /
Tanker War In The Persian Gulf 1987
STRAIT OF HORMUZ - OCTOBER 1987: A view of an oil tanker surrounded by a slick of oil after being attacked by Iranian gunboats in the Strait of Hormuz. (Photo by Derek Hudson/Getty Images)
TOPSHOT-IRAN-POLITICS-PARLIAMENT-VOTE
TOPSHOT - Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei adjusts his eyeglasses during a press conference after casting his ballot for the parliamentary runoff elections in Tehran on May 10, 2024. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP) (Photo by ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images)
President Trump Campaigns With Congressman Mike Lawler In New York
SUFFERN, NEW YORK - MAY 22: U.S. President Donald Trump dances on stage after delivering remarks during a campaign and economic policy event in the Eugene Levy Fieldhouse at SUNY Rockland Community College on May 22, 2026 in Suffern, New York. (Photo by Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images)
Turkey-Van-Border-Crossings-Iranian
People, mostly Iranians who crossed from Iran at the Kapikoy border crossing, arrive in Turkey’s eastern Van province on Friday, March 6, 2026, as the Iran-US-Israel conflict drove a rise in cross-border travel and displacement. (Photo by Murat Kocabas / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)
TOPSHOT-PALESTINIAN-ISRAEL-CONFLICT
TOPSHOT - Palestinians inspect the destruction at a makeshift displacement camp following a reported incursion a day earlier by Israeli tanks in the area in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza strip on July 11, 2025. (Photo by AFP) (Photo by -/AFP via Getty Images)
India Steel Plant Pollution
Smoke rises from the SAIL (Steel Authority of India Limited) plant, causing air pollution in the steel city Rourkela, which is over 500 km away from Bhubaneswar, the capital city of the eastern Indian state of Odisha. (Photo by STR/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Memorial Day Weekend Kicks Off Summer Travel Season With Near Record High Gas Prices Dragging On The Economy
ROLLING MEADOWS, ILLINOIS - MAY 21: Gas prices are displayed at a station on May 21, 2026 in Rolling Meadows, Illinois. According to AAA, the national average gas price for regular gas is $4.56 per gallon, the highest in four years and up 54 cents from last month. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
President Trump Returns To Nation’s Capital After Weekend In Florida
IN FLIGHT - MARCH 15: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media onboard Air Force One on March 15, 2026 while en route to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland from West Palm Beach Florida. President Trump returned to Washington D.C. on Sunday following a weekend trip to Florida. (Photo by Nathan Howard/Getty Images)
Helicopters on deck of US Navy task forc
Helicopters on deck of US Navy task force warship (incl. USS Tripoli, Cleveland, Rushmore, MT. McHenry & Rodney Davis) in exercise to deter Iraqi mil. threat to Kuwait. (Photo by Barry Iverson/Getty Images)
The San Diego Union-Tribune Archive
The USS Boxer, the flagship of the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group arrives at Naval Base San Diego, ending a seven month deployment, November 27, 2019, in San Diego, California. (Photo by Howard Lipin/The San Diego Union-Tribune via Getty Images)
Satellite imagery of Iran
KHARG, IRAN - FEBRUARY 02: Kharg Island, located in the Persian Gulf off the coast of Iran. (Photo by Orbital Horizon/Gallo Images via Getty Images)
