Everything You Need To Know About the U.S. / Israeli War With Iran (w/ Alastair Crooke) | The Chris Hedges Report

Alastair Crooke and Hedges note that this conflict is far from over and the future of the Middle East and the global economy hinges on what comes next from Israel, Iran or the United States.

This interview is also available on podcast platforms and Rumble.

Following attacks on Iran by Israel and the United States, the world held its breath as the prospect of World War III loomed on the horizon. After 12 days of conflict, a ceasefire has brought about new uncertainty for the future.

Former British diplomat Alastair Crooke joins host Chris Hedges on this episode of The Chris Hedges Report to make sense of the current situation in the Middle East and what can be expected in the coming weeks or months.

---

---

Crooke details the lead up to the Israeli attacks, including the use of technology and neighbouring countries that allowed for the element of surprise. Cyber attacks, drones flown in from Azerbaijan and American military software served as crucial elements for the Israeli attacks on Iran.

As for the American strikes weeks later, Crooke explains Donald Trump’s alleged anxiety in not engaging in a prolonged conflict and theorizes about what the damage on Iran’s nuclear facilities actually looks like and what it could mean going forward.

Hedges and Crooke lay out what could come next, indicating that this conflict is far from over and the future of the Middle East, along with the rest of the world’s economy, hinges on what comes next from Israel, Iran or the United States.

---

---

Host

Chris Hedges

Producer:

Max Jones

Intro:

Diego Ramos

Crew:

Diego Ramos, Sofia Menemenlis and Thomas Hedges

Transcript:

Diego Ramos

---

---

Transcript

Chris Hedges

The 12-day conflict between Israel, the United States and Iran is not over. It is the first phase of what could become an endless war, much like Israel’s decades-long sporadic war against Lebanon. The attacks on Iran, as with the invasion and occupation of Iraq, was based on a lie. Neither U.S. intelligence nor the U.N. concurred with Netanyahu and Trump’s claim that Iran was weaponizing its enriched uranium.

Israel was able to inflict significant damage on Iran, including what it says were the targeted assassinations of 30 senior security officials and 11 senior nuclear scientists. But Israel and the United States do not appear to have, as Donald Trump insisted, obliterated Iran’s nuclear weapons program. At best, it probably set back any enrichment program by only a few weeks or months should Iran decide to build a bomb.

Iran’s surface-to-surface missiles probably caused more damage and casualties than Israel expected, but because the Israeli Air Force had virtual control over the skies of Iran it was able to find and hit those launchers with increasing efficacy. By shredding the nuclear agreement with Iran in Trump’s first administration, which the Iranians were abiding by, and then allowing Israel to carry out an attack while negotiations were ongoing with Iran, the United States and Israel have effectively shut the door on any diplomatic resolution to the conflict.

The failure of European governments to condemn the bombing, a flagrant violation of Iran’s sovereignty, has only widened the divide between Iran and the West. Rather than weaken the Iranian regime, these attacks have enraged Iranians, especially young Iranians, who poured into the streets in the millions for the funerals of the victims of Israel’s attacks.

It has hardened the resolve of the Iranians rulers who have suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and rejected calls by the Trump administration to resume negotiations.

Joining me to discuss the fallout from this 12-day war and what comes next is Alastair Crooke, a former British diplomat who served for many years in the Middle East working as a security advisor to the EU special envoy to the Middle East, as well as helping lead efforts to set up negotiations and truces between Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other Palestinian resistant groups with Israel. He is also the author of Resistance: The Essence of the Islamist Revolution, which analyzes the ascendancy of Islamic movements in the Middle East. You can find his work at ConflictsForum.Substack.com.

Let's begin with a question that has puzzled me since these attacks began, and that is why it was so easy for Israel to take out Iran's air defenses, which were a mixture of Iranian-produced air defenses, of course, but also Russian air defenses.

Alastair Crooke

Well, there's a certain deception about what happened there. I know that it is advertised by Israel and by many in the United States that there was open skies and that Israel could actually come across and destroy the air defenses. That actually is not true.

In fact, if you look, you'll find there is not a single video. Many people were taking shots from their smartphones and things, not a single video of an Israeli aircraft over Tehran or Iran as a whole. What happened? It's really very interesting because it has a very important impact.

What happened was that well before the 13th of June surprise attack that Israel mounted on Iran, Israel Mossad and its special forces were pre-positioning anti-tank weapons from Kurdistan area, from Erbil and the Kurdistan area of Iraq across the border into Iran. Quite close, as close as they could get to the air defense systems that were present.

And then special forces, Israelis have admitted they had special forces in Iran at that time, and the special forces then were coming and using ballistic missiles guided by American software, the Battlescape software system onto the targets that they wanted. Now, there were no aircraft crossing into Iranian airspace except that some aircraft from Israel flew right along the north of Iran, which is very mountainous and really deserted, into Azerbaijan, the airspace.

And from Azerbaijan, Israel launched drones, attack drones. They didn't have such a big warhead. But they also then flew down the Caspian till they were opposite Tehran. And from there, the Israeli planes fired these latest ballistic cruise missiles. Those are the ones that hit Tehran and made a big impact on it. So it was a very complicated setup that had taken months, if not years for Mossad to put all of those into position to infiltrate people, pre-position them.

What took out the Iranian air defences in the first day was actually a cyber attack, a really major cyber attack on their air defences, and they managed to undo that and to correct it with eight hours after which their air defences were working again and you can see there's evidence, we can see quite clear evidence of that happening.

Why was Iran in such a vulnerable position? Well, that's quite interesting too, because actually on that day, the 13th of June, scheduled, long scheduled, and with the Iranians expecting to go to talks on the Sunday with [United States Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve] Witkoff in Oman and the Americans to talk about the nuclear program, the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] had a big program, a big exercise prepared with naval and other forces engaged with us and some of the missile launches were actually exposed and put out because of this big exercise.

I think it involved the Chinese too as well. So they were all in this headquarters in a single room in the headquarters when Israel decapitated the line commanders of the IRGC and the military staff who were all preparing for this big exercise. They were taken by surprise and the decapitation happened. What happened with the civilian scientists, they were killed by spike missiles fired directly and small ballistic missiles fired by probably the special forces, I'm not quite sure, into their homes. Precise strikes into the homes killing them and their families too. I think it's 10 or 11 scientists were killed. So that was really what happened.

Now, the most important, there are two important things that flow from this. The first is this setup is not repeatable. You can't, I mean, it was a very sophisticated, long-prepared positioning people in the site, both from the north, from Azerbaijan, and across the border from Kurdistan, the MEK [People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran] coming across Kurdistan, setting all these up.

The cyber attack was set up and prepared and everything was ready for this. But now it's exposed. You can't go back to it. And also that now, I mean, the Iranian air defenses are fully operational. They're getting more air defenses from the Chinese. So it won't be the same. You can't just repeat that operation. And the talk about open skies was very deceptive. It was really a lie.

It wasn't open skies. It was actually something rather different that happened. So that's very important that it's not something that can be repeated. Israel can't do this next week or the week after. It would take months if possible. But in the meantime, Iran is, of course, operating around Erbil and Kurdistan.

You've probably seen there have been many explosions and attacks there. In the north, removing Baluchis and refugees from across the border from that area. And there is a tough conversation taking place between Russia and [Ilham] Aliyev, the head of the Azeri state and also from Iran. So there is a great deal of tension there from Azerbaijan and Russia about different things. But it used to have good relations, but now it's very tense indeed there.

The Russians suspect that not only those tactics of infiltration, of saboteurs were done, if you like, during that attack on Russia's strategic bomber force out of Kazakhstan, but they think that some of them were done by part of the illegal and criminal gangs who are Azeris as well as Russian citizens.

And behind this, Russia sees the hand of Turkey and NATO for both the attack in Iran and also the attack that took place, I think it was called the Spider's Web attack [Operation Spiderweb] on those strategic bombers that were out in the open on, again, the day before peace talks were taking place.

Chris Hedges

Let's talk about the American strike. Correct me if I'm wrong, it was my understanding that the Israelis did take out air defenses to open a corridor for American bombers, but maybe that's incorrect. And secondly, let's talk about the, what is it, 408 kilograms of enriched uranium. I think they're supposedly at 60%. But let's talk about the American strike.

Alastair Crooke

Well, the Americans warned these Iranians beforehand, either I think probably through the Swiss embassy in Tehran or through, perhaps equally likely through Oman, warned them in advance and also told them it was once and done, i.e. would be one strike, finish, end of the process.

So they passed that information to the Iranians and I believe, I can't budge for it perfectly, but my understanding is that the Russians said to them, look, just let it happen. It's much better, just let it happen. You probably won't, it won't be as damaging as it may be advertised, just let it happen. And it's true because in that time it's fairly clear. There was no evidence you can see of any great, if you like, air defences being used or mounted or explosions.

Iranians tell me, I was in Iran just before this happened, the Iranians tell me it was very quiet that night, there was nothing happening. So they just came in, they did what they wanted to do and then they left. What success they had, well, nobody can really say. At this stage, anyone who tells you or says they know, I don't think is telling the truth because the only way you know… there are about five entrances to Fordow, five different entrances.

Two of them were blocked up with soil by the Iranians before the strike, two days before. And the whole basis of this depends on a very controversial piece of, if you like, mechanics. Most of those entrances to the Fordow base have got blast bends in them. In other words, if there's an explosion, it can't go any further. It can't reach the centrifuge hole. Centrifuge hole, don't forget, is at 800 meters depth in this mountain.

And then there is a vent. And this is a source of controversy in America as anywhere else is according to the Americans and who brief Trump, the vent had no, if you like, bend in it. It was vertical, straight from the surface down to the centrifuge hole. And many experts, professors from MIT and others, are very adamant and saying it's unbelievable that the Iranians would have put blast vents in all of the entrances but have forget to do it in the vent.

Well, I don't know the answer to that. You'll have to go and ask the professor about that. But, yes, four days beforehand there were trucks at Fordow and the Iranians and I think there's some reasonably reliable reporting that the highly enriched uranium was removed and probably deposited in this other site called the Pickaxe Mountain, which is also quite close to Qom and I would think it's probably hidden there somewhere.

It's even deeper than Fordow by the way, but it's never mentioned because it seems to be off the radar. Anyway, I think that is probably where it is, but until the Iranians clear one of these entrances, which they deliberately blocked up to stop pressure rising and go into the hall, we won't know how much damage is done.

But I think the Isfahan one also is very deep and it's quite likely that centrifuges were not destroyed at Isfahan. Natanz is different. Natanz is very old. It's there from the Shah's time. It's mostly on the surface. I remember passing it and you could, you know, it's there and you see it. But they put the centrifuges down I think between 60 and 80 meters. So I mean, maybe they're badly damaged, who knows. But they don't need many centrifuges.

One of the things that this professor from MIT, Postol, Ted Postol says that, you know, once you get to a certain point in the enrichment process, then it becomes exponential. You just have to do a tiny bit more and that you're up at 90%. So I mean, you know, they don't need many centrifuges to have survived.

Chris Hedges

The pilots talked about seeing explosions, but what I heard, that was in fact not a good sign.

Alastair Crooke

Yes, that's right. That is a sign that there was a blast bend on the vent. And so the blast was coming up. And that's why it had a spectacular view of explosion, because it hadn't gone down to the centrifuge floor. It had come up and was at the surface. So it isn't necessarily a good indicator of that.

So that was really the gist of it, that I think it was clear that Trump wanted it. And we know quite a lot about that day because someone, and I wrote about it, it extends to you and I'm sure you probably know Michael Wolff, who's written four books on Trump, and he was talking and calling. He works by calling interlocutors that the Trump has just spoken to on the phone.

And he says it's a really reliable way of finding out what Trump is thinking because he says the same question to each interlocutor. And it's not really a question. So on the 12th, it seemed that… on the 22nd rather, the day of the American strike, Trump was quite anxious, according to Michael Wolff. And he kept asking people, I mean, is it going to work? Is it going to be a win? Is it going to be, I mean, a game changer? I'm hoping for a game change, we want something that is perfect and this will be a big headline and a big win and I want the headline, “We won.”

So he says there was an element of sort of lack of confidence, almost, in Trump, I mean he went on saying the same thing you know, “this is what it's got to be: in, boom, out. In, boom out, ceasefire.”

And so that's how it was presented. And actually, you know, this suits the Iranians quite well, because he says and insists, obliterated. Everything has been obliterated. There's nothing left. It's all over. No nuclear program. Well, this is fine from the Iranian point of view because they say, well then, to sort of [French President Emmanuel] Macron and others who saying, well, well, the IAEA have to go back and sort of inspect and find out what's going on.

And they say, but it's you who say it's all over. There isn't a program. So why do we need the IAEA in there at all? In fact, the IAEA are already out and their return, I mean, I'm not exaggerating this, they need huge bodyguards if they ever went back to Iran. They are hated with a huge intensity by the ordinary population because they believe that particularly the assassination of the scientists and the identification of them came from the IAEA artificial intelligence program MOSAIC, which is one of the, if you like, Palantir stable of targeting systems, which relies on imputing motives to people, not on evidence.

This is where you get the great disparity with Tulsi Gabbard, for example, because what the IAEA were using was this data gathering process examining 400 million pieces of data, social, what you read on your social platforms, where you move, who your children play with, all of this thing, just like Palantir uses the same system in Israel and in Gaza to impute to Israel, to Iran the idea that they are not being honest in moving the enriched uranium, that they're not declaring things.

And so that's what happened on the 12th. The day before the Israeli attack on Iran, the board of the IAEA on the basis of this evidence said, Iran is accelerating towards enrichment and therefore to a bomb. And this is in breach of the protocols of the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action].

This is really the pretext for the attack on Iran that took place on Friday the 13th of June. That resolution that was prepared and stage managed effectively by the IAEA to give, if you like, a peg for the Israeli tact to take place, which is why the Iranians and the Russians too are so distrustful of the IAEA and I don't think it's going back into Iran.

Chris Hedges

Well, the UN inspection teams in Iraq were riddled with foreign intelligence operatives, including Israeli. One has to assume that's also true with the IAEA.

Alastair Crooke

It's completely, I mean it's verified. I mean, we know that they were providing intelligence to the Mossad and to Israel about, and of course IAEA insisted on meeting the scientists involved in the nuclear program and therefore being able to identify them.

Whether this was directly passed on, I can't say. But the Iranians have intelligence which suggests that it was passed on. I haven't seen the intelligence.

Chris Hedges

Let's talk about the strikes on Israel. Of course, because of military censorship in Israel, we don't know the full picture. We know that refineries were hit in Haifa. We know the Weizmann Institute was hit. Reading it from a distance, it does appear that Israel was probably a little surprised at the extent of the damage that the Iranians were able to inflict.

Alastair Crooke

I think they were very shocked by it. They were attacked as they'd never been attacked before. I mean, they might have been used to a few Katyusha rockets from Gaza, but this was a completely different order. As you say, there's been a complete news blackout, but subsequently, from satellite images, it's clear that at least five military sites were destroyed by the Iranians apart from, if you like, the main ones, which was the HaKirya, which was the equivalent of the Pentagon, the Mossad headquarters in Herzliya, and various other sites as well, as well as other damages. And those other ones are very important because this is key in their economic sense, that first of all, there was the attack on Haifa and the destruction of the refinery at Haifa.

And the Israelis say it will not be able to operate for at least a month. And then there was the attack on the Ashdod Port which destroyed the electric power system. There's a generator, the power generator there which led to the blackout in about a third of the country. It's been restored. Israel has three ports, Eilat, which has been closed for months, Haifa and Ashdod.

Both of those were heavily attacked and the economy was really at a halt and this is why Israel called to the Omanis and said we need a ceasefire and said the same to America, we need it. And the other reason was because they were running out of missiles, of intercept missiles. The Israelis themselves say 93 THAAD [Terminal High Altitude Area Defense] missiles were fired by the Americans and the Israelis in that period of the 12 days.

93, which is equivalent to $1.2 billion worth of missiles, which is about two to three years total production capacity of THAAD missile interceptors during that period. So again, not only can that operation that they did on the 13th not be easily resurrected, but at the moment, Israel is going to have to wait to re-equip itself with air defenses in a major way before they could think of attacking. Iran is also doing the same.

The Iranians believe and think that there will be a further attack from Israel because it's not, they believe, in Israel's interest to accept the Trump assertion that the program is over, that Israel wants to say that the program is there because that provides them with the cue to say, yes, within the ceasefire we have the right to attack when and as we want onto Iran, if we suspect that they're enriching or moving uranium, we can attack at our initiative.

This is what the basis of the ceasefire in Lebanon is, that there is to be a ceasefire, but Israel has the right to attack anywhere in Lebanon as it chooses and when it chooses. So they've been trying to impose the same terms, if you like, on Iran. And I think that is ultimately intended to try and pull in America to another round of attacks because the Israeli position is still, and this is very important really, that the Israeli position is that simply the enrichment program cannot be defeated by military systems alone.

The only way ultimately to defeat it is by a regime change and the imposition of a Western style puppet government into Tehran because they believe that they cannot kill the technical knowledge or the will to move ahead with enrichment. I think there are two triggers that we should watch.

If the West really pushes the Iranians to allow some sort of oversight or monitoring of the program with a reformed perhaps IAEA or whatever, by the way, Russia won't push them very hard on that because the IAEA, Russia has its own quarrels with the IAEA. But if the West pushes, Trump pushes very hard on that, then I think, and it is required under the NPT, the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty, monitoring and accountability is part of the treaty.

If that is pushed, then I think there will be an answer, which is we're leaving the NPT. And if then, which is also likely, the Euro 3 and the JCPOA push for a snapback of sanctions on Iran. And they've already said publicly that they intend to push for snapback sanctions.

Part of the whole process of putting more pressure on Iran and then the hope that Trump keeps saying that they will then come and offer an unconditional surrender, which will never happen. But that's the plan anyway. But those two things were likely to push Iran off the NPT. What happens then? We have to wait and see. But there is a very strong patriotic mood, as you referred to in the introduction.

And what is so striking is it's the young, the people that people thought were not necessarily, you know, supporters of it. And they are totally, totally supporting the Supreme Leader. He's like a sort of celebrity figure now for everyone, for the young and for all. So I don't know whether they will decide to move towards a weapon or leave it in sort of strategic ambiguity. That's a possibility too.

Chris Hedges

Well, these kinds of attacks always generate that kind of blowback. I was in Buenos Aires right before the British attacked the Falklands and the regime was about to fall, the junta. And then as soon as the attack began, these people became national galtiere and all these criminals became national heroes. I want to talk about that process because the Supreme Leader has, I think it was 2003, had written that it was against Sharia Islamic law to build a nuclear weapon.

Alastair Crooke

That's perfectly true, but there is some important element. Under Sharia jurisprudence there's a thing called Ijtihad, which is that you can change law through reasoning, through a process of reasoning. And that reasoning can be changed on the basis of time and circumstances.

So that if it's no longer appropriate because the world has moved on and life is different or because of a changed circumstances then a jurist, it has to be a jurist, it's not a political decision but a qualified jurist, Hujjat al-Islam or [inaudible] can actually change the law and a new fatwa can be issued very easily. It doesn't need parliamentary or a pew but there is a majority in Iran now of people who argued that it was a mistake never to go down this route and that this is going to be something that is going to be really much more, and this is something the Russians have alluded to, which I think is quite significant.

They're saying actually this whole proliferation process that the West had is actually back to front because actually it's pushing people ultimately towards a weapon, not preventing them because this process of going around and just threatening states we’re going to bomb you to the stone age if you don't do what we tell you actually has ended and that's what happened of course with North Korea.

I mean they'd agreed a process of giving it up but then more requirements and more requirements were imposed. I mean it was all agreed and there was going to be money put in and a new process and then the extra demands that Washington imposed on top of the original agreement prompted the North Koreans to say, hang it, it's not worth it, I mean it's much better that we should go for a bomb.

So I mean the Russians and others are saying well this whole nonproliferation, actually the real proliferators at this moment is the West because they keep pushing people towards thinking the only thing that they need. And look what's happened. They bombed Iran and now Saudi Arabia is talking about a weapon. Now India is expressing concerns about it and what the consequence will be. Other states will be pursuing it.

So actually rather than stopping proliferation, acting to stop proliferation as the West says it's doing, it is actually encouraging proliferation. That's the Russian view. [Dmitry] Medvedev said that, the Vice President said that quite recently.

Chris Hedges

We also have the example of [Muammar] Gaddafi, who gave up his program.

Alastair Crooke

Exactly, It wasn't too difficult to take away, I remember, because it was still in its packing cases. He hadn't even unpacked it and it was removed. Anyway, that was, yes, there isn't a good history [inaudible].

Chris Hedges

Let's talk about the increased drone activity that apparently is occurring over Iran and what that means.

Alastair Crooke

The Israeli drone activity over Iran at the moment is not attack drones. It is mostly surveillance drones. They're sort of trying to scope out radar and the sort of the time it takes for radar to lock onto them and where the radar is. And that is being fed into the American, only the Americans have this sort of satellite-based battlescape map that sort of tracks all radar and air defenses so that you can, if you like, construct your missiles to sort of do a slalom between all the impediments to reach your target.

So that's what's happening at the moment. Plus, and I heard this from Tehran just yesterday, they're under huge cyber attack from all NATO, they say. I mean, there's a big cyber attack going. So I think, you know, both parties expect there will be another round and Iran's certainly and Israel is preparing for the next stage. So I think, you know, although Trump, and I don't think he wanted this, I mean, from everything that Michael Wolff said about those calls which were, you know, I just want this to be perfect. I want this, you know, I want this to be in boom, out, finished, ceasefire, done, let's close it, finish this talk.

I think that what Trump is trying to do there is he does not, and Michael Wolff says, and I think this is absolutely right, he doesn't think he has the attention span to do a long, drawn-out slugfest fight with Iran. What he's trying to do is shut it down to give him enough space to get back to what he really wants, which is, if you like, this new Middle East business world, this new structure whereby Lebanon and Syria and others will be brought into some form.

We will have the Abraham Accords 2.0. And this will open a universe of business and trading possibilities through and you know that he hopes that Iran can just sort of stand on the sidelines and not do anything about it till he can find some other agreement with Iran.

The main thing is the headline. Let's have a big headline. We've done it. There's a new Middle East. Everyone's in this new sort of matrix of money, investments, resources, and of course the resources of Iran, which are so vital to China.

And also the fact that the Gulf states and that if he can take that whole, if you like, corridor of the Middle East, he can take it into southern Central Asia and disrupt the BRICS and their connectivity plans in those stung areas — Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, all those areas. He can disrupt it and start moving the economic sphere into this.

At the same time, that he's doing, if you like, an attempt to cage China literally by tariffs structures. And also weakening Russia by reigniting the tensions in the Caucasus again. And so Russia and Putin are taking this very seriously. And so is China. And they are very angry about this. They're angry about the deceit because Putin thinks he was deceived by those attacks on the strategic bombers just the day before the Istanbul talks just as Iran is.

And China believes also that Xi was cheated by Trump in the discussions that they had. So there's a real sort of sense of preparing for a new and wider Cold War that is being pushed. I mean, Kazakhstan in the north that is, I was in Russia around about the time of the Crocus Hall, the concert hall that was burnt down.

And they were Tajiks that had come down who were found to be responsible. And there was a big structure in Kazakhstan for recruiting people, Afghans and Tajiks and others and for infiltrating them into Russia or to Iran or whatever. And now we see that Azerbaijan is engaged in the same idea.

Now the reports, I can't verify them, but recently Russia arrested a number of Azeris-Russian citizens and that produced a dramatic response from Aliyev who arrested all the Sputnik journalists and many others in Azerbaijan and they roughed them up and they've charged them with espionage and other charges.

Now there's always been sort of criminal groups in Russia from Azerbaijan. They're known as sort of a mafia there. But this is more serious, I believe, because it's thinking the Russians may be suspected that these groups were also facilitating the infiltration of some of those pre-positioned units that were ready for the attack on the strategic bomber system in Russia, the Spider's Web.

And that also Azerbaijan was facilitating the attack on Iran. So Azerbaijan and Armenia too and the question of Turkey's role. The United States is trying to woo [Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan with promises of F-35s, if only he’ll mothball the S-400s that he has and I think that the aim is, the Israeli aim is the key to their, if you like, their new corridor, the new, if you like, Abraham Accord 2.0, a business plan right through to Asia, is that Turkey should persuade both Syria and Lebanon that they have no choice and incentivize them both to join into this new sort of greater Israel project.

So this is why there's a lot of tensions that all these proposals that are coming out of America at the moment, the intent to sort of cut off China from trade by putting differential tariffs on China if they trans ship goods through Vietnam or another country. The prospect of new sanctions on Russia.

The attack on Iran is a pivot, a key pivot for Russia and China of the whole BRICS structure. All of these things are producing a really strong response from Russia. I mean, it's given very tough response to Trump and this and says, we know exactly what you're doing in the Caucasus. We know what you are doing in Azerbaijan and we won't put up with it. And so Russia responded to this by destroying the two refineries in Ukraine that were fueled from Baku, from Azerbaijan. There was Azerbaijan input that was fueling these two refineries. This was a warning to Azerbaijan, you know, stop playing around with this.

So Iran will be saying something rather similar, I suspect, to the Azeris. Now, I think some people in the United States think, even dream, of the idea that Azerbaijan could invade at the right moment in coordination with Israel into Iran as the Baluch perhaps come from another side or the Kurds from the other. But I think that is very far-fetched because 85% of the areas are Shiʿi. There is, if you like, the leadership is Turkic more than Iranian Shiʿi but they're Turkic, either Sunni or Shiʿi converted.

Anyway, it's very secular. And the Iranians, all the Azeris in Iran are very, very loyal to Iran. And people talk about, well, the Azeri’s glass ceiling. And I slightly laugh at that. And I say, well, there's one person you probably have heard of who's really well-known poet and he writes in the Azeri language and he's fluent in the Azeri language and he is Azeri and that's the Supreme Leader. So it's not that the Azeris are completely sort of outliers in Iran.

Chris Hedges

Didn't Israel launch drones from there? Isn't that a launch point for...

Alastair Crooke

Yeah, exactly. They launched drones and also, as I say, the airspace of Azerbaijan was used for standoff firing of drones that had these new cruise missiles, multiple cruise missiles. They could launch them once they were in Iranian territory.

Chris Hedges

I have two last questions, but just on Gaza, because in the meeting in the White House, when reporters were allowed in, Trump and Netanyahu were talking about depopulating Gaza. Netanyahu very cynically said it's not a prison. People who want to leave, of course, there's enforced starvation since March 2nd, should have the right to leave. Just your thoughts on what's happening in Gaza.

Alastair Crooke

What's happening in Gaza is that Netanyahu and the right are intent on first of all pushing all the Palestinians into what amounts to a concentration camp in one small part. They will be put in but they will not be allowed out of it. And it is a stage towards, it's politely called voluntary expatriation but it is of course mandatory, if you like, removal of the population from Gaza.

And the same is going on in the West Bank. Huge process. [Bezalel] Smotrich is in charge of this aspect. And there is a real effort being made because they think they believe they can persuade Trump to annex most of the West Bank. But settlers have moved into large areas. New settlements are announced all the time. The annexation is afoot in the West Bank as in Gaza. I think I remember Smotrich was always very, very clear about this. I remember listening to him about six years ago or so and he said, listen, this is our plan, to remove all the Palestinians from the area. And he said, but you know, as it is with the legal system, it's difficult.

What we need is a big crisis or a big war. And when that happens, we will complete the project. That's what we're looking for. And that's why they're always sort of playing around with the Temple Mount, Al-Aqsa. Looking to use that perhaps as the pretext to sort of trigger a commotion in the whole Muslim world.

Al-Aqsa is a neuralgic point in the Muslim world, that they could use this as the ability to sort of create the crisis that they could then, under the pretext of an emergency, really move, finish off the depopulation of Gaza and also much of the West Bank, drive the West Bank to Jordan.

Chris Hedges

Does that mean they would drive the Palestinians and try to drive them into Jordan and they would drive the Palestinians in Gaza into Egypt? The Egyptians and the Jordanians have been adamant that's not going to happen.

Alastair Crooke

Yes, but I mean they are pushing them closer and closer to the Rafah Gate. And, you know, what's going to happen if they open those gates and just push them out, tou know, a million or so Palestinians?

It's very, very sensitive in Egypt. The Egyptians are really, ordinary Egyptians, the Egyptian army is very angry with [Abdel Fattah El-]Sisi about his ineffectual response to what's happening in Gaza. It could explode. The whole Egyptian element could explode in this process. Of course there will be some sort of public relations exercise of sending a few Palestinians to, I don't know where, but somewhere to say, no they went voluntarily.

But of course that's not what's planned. What’s planned is another Nakba from Gaza. And it's unfolding, sadly, unfortunately. You know, Hamas demands are not met by this proposal. This is why I don't, I think what we will get is probably some sort of ceasefire. But it's a ceasefire designed to allow the Israelis to resume the attrition of Gaza either because they'll claim it will break down or because they'll claim the 60 days are over.

And the Hamas position remains unchanged — we want an end to the war. We want the removal of all of the Israeli troops from Gaza and a reconstruction of the strip. And of course, the Witkoff proposal does none of those things. It doesn't provide for an end of the war. There will still be Israeli forces inside Gaza during the ceasefire and after. And the proposals for reconstructing it is quite different to be done by pliant Arab states.

Chris Hedges

And we should just draw that parallel between decapitating Hamas. I knew Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi, one of the co-founders of Hamas, assassinated with his son in 2004, a long litany of Hamas leaders who were killed. And of course, it disrupts the organization without question. But just because Israel has decapitated Iranian leadership, ultimately, I mean I'll get your feed on this, it ultimately doesn't disrupt the system.

Alastair Crooke

I think that's exactly what we saw in Iran. I mean, that actually, as so often has happened, Israel decapitates the moderates and the younger generation that come in are much more hardline than, you know, their other elderly. I mean, some of the IRGC are veterans from the Iran-Iraq War and, you know, the younger are much more vigorous and much more determined than the older ones and that's what's happened.

And I think what we've seen is the other part of this great equation that was supposed to come out of Washington. Hezbollah have said categorically they will not accept any process that leads to their disarmament. Now this may end up in civil war in Lebanon, it could do what the Americans are pushing very, very hard in every way to disenfranchise, depoliticize, demilitarize the Shia who are the majority in Lebanon and it won't happen. I mean they've been down that route in the past as you know and it's not likely to happen.

Chris Hedges

Let's just close with the next Israeli strike, which you talked about how Israel views ceasefires. This is writ large in Gaza, where Israel violates every single ceasefire they make to “mow the lawn.” That same kind of mentality will most likely be used to again make strikes against Iran if in Israeli eyes they feel they are reconstituting military defenses or a nuclear program. What do you, how do you picture that strike and the consequences? The next one.

Alastair Crooke

I think the first thing which is really important to say is that, and we follow the Israeli press very very closely, the Hebrew press, I mean not just the English language press. It's very clear that they know now after what has happened, I mean they sustained much more damage than they had expected, that they cannot attack Iran without full

unstinting American support. Now the question is, is that going to be forthcoming? And I think one of the things that I feel might stop it is the question of the MAGA. I think the MAGA are really quite unhappy. You know, there were two issues in the American election, immigration and forever wars. And MAGA

came and also there is a quite a number of Democrats, young Democratic voters who supported Trump mainly because he promised peace and no more war. Not necessarily for the other part, but certainly for that. They are starting to filter away. And it's also in the MAGA.

You've seen, I mean, Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson and everyone who, there's a big pushback against it.

They have, Trump has a majority, I think you can correct me if I'm wrong, about three in both houses, in the Senate and the House. It's small. And midterms are just over a year away. So I think he is going to be worried about the internal position, the MAGA position and that. And that was obvious almost when Hexeth came in, spoke, and he said, he went on, you may remember it, he made a statement, I think, on Fox News saying, look, we're not attacking Iran per se or the Iranian people, we're just attacking the nuclear program. I think, you know, we're not wanting to have a war with Iran, we're just trying to, you know, sort this part out. So I think he will because, you know, with only three, it would be quite feasible if he gets stuck and locked into a long...

bloody conflict in Iran and it would be because Iran's got surprises for the United States and for Israel if it moves to another phase everyone is preparing for another phase. If it does that you know he may find that you know at the end of it I mean it would be a very different world. I mean one can't even rule out if there is a change at the midterm elections you know impeachment and things might come back.

on to the agenda. You know more about that than I, but it's a generous moment and I think he's right to be concerned about it because it's from both ends of his, it's the young and it is the MAGA who are both, you know, don't want a war, a big war in the Middle East particularly.

Chris Hedges

Great, thanks. And I want to thank Sophia, Victor, Max, Thomas, and Diego who produced the show. You can find me at ChrisHedges.Substack.com.

---

Photos

TOPSHOT-PALESTINIAN-ISRAEL-IRAN-CONFLICT

TOPSHOT - This picture taken from Nuseirat, in the central Gaza Strip, shows rocket trails in the sky late on June 13, 2025, after Iran struck Israel with barrages of missiles after a massive onslaught targeted the Islamic republic's nuclear and military facilities. (Photo by Eyad BABA / AFP) (Photo by EYAD BABA/AFP via Getty Images)

Israel Launches Strikes Against Iran

TEHRAN, IRAN - JUNE 13: An excavator removes debris from a residential building that was destroyed in today's attack by Israel in Tehran, on June 13, 2025 in Tehran, Iran. Early this morning, Iran was hit by a series of Israeli airstrikes targeting military and nuclear sites, as well as top military officials. (Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

Iran continues to launch missiles towards Israel

TEL AVIV, ISRAEL - JUNE 16: Smoke and flame rise after Iranian strikes hit a building as Iran's ongoing retaliatory attacks with ballistic missiles towards Israel are seen from Tel Aviv, Israel on June 16, 2025. (Photo by Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu via Getty Images)

TOPSHOT-ISRAEL-PALESTINIAN-LEBANON-CONFLICT-IRAN

TOPSHOT - Rockets fired from southern Lebanon are intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome air defence system over the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel, on August 4, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border clashes between Israeli troops and Lebanon's Hezbollah fighters. (Photo by Jalaa MAREY / AFP) (Photo by JALAA MAREY/AFP via Getty Images)

State Funeral Held In Tehran For Military Commanders Killed By Israel

TEHRAN, IRAN - JUNE 28: Thousands of Iranians attend the funeral ceremony for approximately 60 people killed in Israeli strikes on Iran, including high-ranking military officials, nuclear scientists, and civilians, during a state funeral service in Enqelab Square on June 28, 2025 in Tehran, Iran. Israel and Iran traded daily aerial attacks over a 12-day period until a ceasefire took effect on June 24. (Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

Israeli Air Force Prepare For Lebanon Mission

RAMAT DAVID, ISRAEL - JULY 12: (ISRAEL OUT) An F16 warplane takes off for a mission in Lebanon from Ramat David air force base on July 12, 2006, Ramat David, Israel. An assault on Southern Lebanon was launched by Israel following the capture of two Israeli soldiers. (Photo by Uriel Sinai/Getty Images)

3D Binary Code on Digital Screen - stock photo

Information Technology Concept, Blue Digital 3D Binary Code Background (by Fotograzia)

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Visits The White House To Meet With President Trump

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 07: U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff (L), accompanied by White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles (R), speaks during a dinner with U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Blue Room of the White House on July 07, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Overview of Fordow Fuel Enrichment Facility June 27, 2025

FORDOW FUEL ENRICHMENT FACILITY, IRAN -- JUNE 27, 2025: 01 Maxar satellite imagery provides a wide overview of the Fordow nuclear complex in Iran.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Announces Scaling-Up Of Nuclear Enrichment Programme

NATANZ, IRAN - APRIL 9: A general view of the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility, is seen on April 9, 2007, 180 miles south of Tehran, Iran. (Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

Michael Wolff "Siege" Book Launch

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 03: Michael Wolff attends Michael Wolff "Siege" Book Launch at a Private Residence on June 03, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Jared Siskin/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images)

President-Elect Donald Trump Holds Meetings At His Trump Tower Residence In New York

NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 16: Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal and venture capitalist, leaves an elevator at Trump Tower, November 16, 2016 in New York City. President-elect Donald Trump and his transition team are in the process of filling cabinet positions for the new administration. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Senate Intelligence Cmte Holds Confirmation Hearing For DNI Nominee Tulsi Gabbard

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 30: Tulsi Gabbard, U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee to be Director of National Intelligence, arrives to testify during her confirmation hearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee in the Dirksen Senate Office Building on January 30, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

Falklands War

800 squadron Sea Harrier aircraft landing on HMS Fearless L10 during the Falklands War 1982. It was unable to land at the damaged Sheathbill air strip, the pilot was Lt-Cdr Neil Thomas. (Photo by Terence Laheney/Getty Images)

Argentine Generals Viola and Galtieri

Argentine military dictators Roberto Viola (L) and Leopoldo Fortunato Galtieri attend a military parade. As successors to Videla, they were responsible for many of the 30,000 people who went missing in Argentina between 1976 and 1983. (Photo by Horacio Villalobos/Corbis via Getty Images)

NKOREA-POLITICS-NUCLEAR

This undated picture released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on September 10, 2017 shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un (front 2nd L) attending an art performance dedicated to nuclear scientists and technicians, who worked on a hydrogen bomb which the regime claimed to have successfully tested, at the People's Theatre in Pyongyang. (Photo credit should read STR/AFP via Getty Images)

The 18th anniversary of the Libyan Revolution in Tripoli, Libya in August , 1987.

LIBYA - AUGUST 01: President of Ghana Jerry John Rawlings, Muammar Al Qadhafi in Tripoli, Libya in August , 1987. (Photo by Francois LOCHON/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images)

RUSSIA-POLITICS-EDUCATION

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia's President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting on education issues at the Kremlin in Moscow on July 10, 2025. (Photo by MIKHAIL METZEL / POOL / AFP) (Photo by MIKHAIL METZEL/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

TOPSHOT-CHINA-US-DIPLOMACY

TOPSHOT - US President Donald Trump (L) shakes hand with China's President Xi Jinping at the end of a press conference at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on November 9, 2017. (Photo by Fred DUFOUR / AFP) (Photo by FRED DUFOUR/AFP via Getty Images)

President Trump Hosts Turkey's President Erdogan At The White House

WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 16: U.S. President Donald Trump (L) welcomes President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) of Turkey outside the West Wing of the White House May 16, 2017 in Washington, DC. President Trump hosted President ErdoganÊwith an Oval Office meeting and a working luncheon. Both leaders are expected to give a joint statement. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Iran Holds Presidential Election

TEHRAN, IRAN - JUNE 28: Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, addresses the media after casting of his ballot in the presidential runoff elections in Tehran on June 28, 2024. Iran's Guardian Council had approved six candidates for the June 28 election to replace president Ebrahim Raisi, who died last month in a helicopter crash. (Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

US-ISRAEL-PALESTINIANS-CONFLICT-DIPLOMACY

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (R) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) hold a meeting at the Pentagon in Washington, DC, on July 9, 2025.(Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

TOPSHOT-ISRAEL-ARGENTINA-POLITICS-DIPLOMACY-PARLIAMENT

TOPSHOT - Israel's (L to R) Foreign Minister Gideon Saar and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich attend the address of Argentina's President to a session of the Israeli parliament (Knesset) at its headquarters in Jerusalem on June 11, 2025. (Photo by Menahem KAHANA / AFP) (Photo by MENAHEM KAHANA/AFP via Getty Images)

Israeli offensive displaces families in Khan Yunis

KHAN YUNIS, GAZA - JULY 10: Palestinian families begin fleeing again from shelters near the Al-Mawasi area as the Israeli army expands its ground offensive and tanks reach southwestern Khan Yunis, Gaza, marking their first displacement in nearly a year and a half, on July 10, 2025. (Photo by Hani Alshaer/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Israeli offensive displaces families in Khan Yunis

KHAN YUNIS, GAZA - JULY 10: Palestinian families begin fleeing again from shelters near the Al-Mawasi area as the Israeli army expands its ground offensive and tanks reach southwestern Khan Yunis, Gaza, marking their first displacement in nearly a year and a half, on July 10, 2025. (Photo by Hani Alshaer/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Steve Witkoff Speaks To Reporters At The White House

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 06: Steve Witkoff, special envoy to the Middle East, speaks to the press outside of the White House on March 06, 2025 in Washington, DC. Witkoff spoke to the press about a range of foreign policy issues including peace talks involving Ukraine and Russia and the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Abdel Aziz al-Rantissi, a Hamas leader, holds a ri

JABALIA:Abdel Aziz al-Rantissi, a Hamas leader, holds a rifle in front of thousands of Palestinians during a demonstration in the Gaza Strip refugee camp of Jabalia 27 April 2001. The fundamentalist group said it would continue suicide attacks against Israel during the mass protest, in which masked youths marched with mock cardboard mortars and girded with fake explosives. AFP PHOTO/Joel SAGET (Photo credit should read JOEL SAGET/AFP via Getty Images)

Steve Bannon Sentenced For Contempt Of Congress

WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 21: Former Trump White House senior advisor Stephen Bannon speaks to journalists after leaving federal court after being sentenced on October 21, 2022 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Donald Trump Campaigns For President In Georgia Ahead Of November Election

DULUTH, GEORGIA - OCTOBER 23: Political commentator Tucker Carlson speaks during a Turning Point Action campaign rally for Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump at the Gas South Arena on October 23, 2024 in Duluth, Georgia. Trump is campaigning across Georgia today as he and Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris attempt to win over swing state voters. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Trump's Nominee For Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth Meets With Lawmakers On Capitol Hill

WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 3: U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's nominee to be Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (C) walks through the Russell Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill on December 3, 2024 in Washington, DC. Hegseth continues to meet with Senate Republicans on Capitol Hill as new allegations of alcohol abuse and sexual misconduct have emerged. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)